I'm sympathetic to the case, made by @zeynep and others, that forecasting has less value when the polls regularly produce big misses.
But some forecasters, like the Nates, have avoided triumphalism and been upfront about the limitations of their models.
Others, not so much... https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1324507561308114947 …
That came after the election, did not change people's behavior, though. These forecasts do.
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I think we all got to adapt to a new infosphere. You are a pioneer and am proud of having included your work in my 2013
@Einaudieditore book "Il web ci rende liberi?". Pollster have to adapt to a society composed of individuals not homogeneous "masses" like the XXI century.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Journos have to learn how to deal with leaders spreading disinformation in a democracy. The old "objective" format is obsolete, yet not airing the historical Trump speech tonite is wrong. You've got to give context, frame it in semantics not eschew it.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Scientists, academics, scholars (see
#COVID19 ) must learn to communicate outside the ivory labs, connecting with communities. In short: last century "mass media" do not work anymore in understanding and reporting our times. I guess this is indeed a really exciting season to workThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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But it was based on polls from before the election which people could read and which could have altered people's behavior same as the models. Polls themselves imply a naive model. Nobody reads "Dewey up by 9 points" and thinks anything other than "Dewey will win".
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And if you didn't have polls, people would be doing this from lawn signs and cookie sales, which would be even worse. The choice here isn't between predicting and not predicting, it's between predicting accurately or predicting inaccurately.
End of conversation
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