I'm sympathetic to the case, made by @zeynep and others, that forecasting has less value when the polls regularly produce big misses.
But some forecasters, like the Nates, have avoided triumphalism and been upfront about the limitations of their models.
Others, not so much... https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1324507561308114947 …
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Replying to @musicologyman @Yascha_Mounk
Absolutely the opposite. Weather forecasting has tons and tons and tons more data, the data is reliable, and the modelers can do model validation all the time, and the forecast does not change odds of rain. People should understand the huge differences between the two.
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Replying to @musicologyman @Yascha_Mounk
People should absolutely not treat electoral forecasts like weather forecasts.
5:56 PM - 5 Nov 2020
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