I'm sympathetic to the case, made by @zeynep and others, that forecasting has less value when the polls regularly produce big misses.
But some forecasters, like the Nates, have avoided triumphalism and been upfront about the limitations of their models.
Others, not so much... https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1324507561308114947 …
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Of course I'd concede that! But I'd argue the thing to look at first is the garbage that goes *in* and that'd be the polls, not the statistical probabilities from the 538 forecast. The former is where ppl got the idea Biden would easily carry battleground states with a 5pt margin
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There's a big, big difference between saying "Biden wins by 4-8 points" and "Biden wins 84 times out of 100" (that's PA from their final forecast). The former has turned out to be complete BS while the latter might still turn out to be right.
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