I'm sympathetic to the case, made by @zeynep and others, that forecasting has less value when the polls regularly produce big misses.
But some forecasters, like the Nates, have avoided triumphalism and been upfront about the limitations of their models.
Others, not so much... https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1324507561308114947 …
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People should absolutely not treat electoral forecasts like weather forecasts.
End of conversation
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There are perfectly good reasons to treat weather forecasts as useful information. You can't model rare events with data that's this off the mark and unfixable by any amount of post-hoc tweaking. That's the intellectually honest caveat we need.
End of conversation
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