I'm sympathetic to the case, made by @zeynep and others, that forecasting has less value when the polls regularly produce big misses.
But some forecasters, like the Nates, have avoided triumphalism and been upfront about the limitations of their models.
Others, not so much... https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1324507561308114947 …
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How do you know that it affected behavior systematically?
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Yup, agree with you about the limitations of forecasting, and definitely think the political class should be less addicted to them. Also think, though, that there's a world of difference between those fotecasters, like
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More more point: Let's unbundle the Nates. FiveThirtyNate has a flawed model based on flawed polls. Needle Nate actually *designed* some of the most influential polls—the NYT Sienna ones. He has legit introspection to do!
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Needle Nate

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What are they supposed to do? Some of us understand the models and put them to use. 538 can't control how ppl use them. They have done as much as possible to communicate uncertainty clearly.
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But then what's the proposal? Polls without forecasting models?
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Conceding what we cannot do. Stop pretending.
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Dewey defeats Truman. Long story.
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That came after the election, did not change people's behavior, though. These forecasts do.
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