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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Yascha Mounk‏Verified account @Yascha_Mounk 5 Nov 2020

      Yascha Mounk Retweeted

      I'm sympathetic to the case, made by @zeynep and others, that forecasting has less value when the polls regularly produce big misses. But some forecasters, like the Nates, have avoided triumphalism and been upfront about the limitations of their models. Others, not so much... https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1324507561308114947 …

      Yascha Mounk added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      10 replies 3 retweets 138 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @Yascha_Mounk

      I agree the presentation was much better this time, compared to 2016. But the effect is not that different; it's subsumed into the horse-race, refreshed often as an anxiety-soother *and* the big numbers necessarily miscommunicate, and affect behavior. A forecast is a forecast.

      5:47 PM - 5 Nov 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 40 Likes
      • hi Tarek Milleron Kkrunchykyle Laura Shin Antonio Posada Romy Nehme newmethos Tom Yemm
      9 replies 1 retweet 40 likes
        1. Are_You_Inspire‏ @Are_you_Inspire 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Yascha_Mounk

          How do you know that it affected behavior systematically?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Yascha Mounk‏Verified account @Yascha_Mounk 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Yup, agree with you about the limitations of forecasting, and definitely think the political class should be less addicted to them. Also think, though, that there's a world of difference between those fotecasters, like @NateSilver538, who acted responsibly and those who didn't.

          2 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
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        2. Sam Koppelman‏ @SammyKoppelman 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Yascha_Mounk

          More more point: Let's unbundle the Nates. FiveThirtyNate has a flawed model based on flawed polls. Needle Nate actually *designed* some of the most influential polls—the NYT Sienna ones. He has legit introspection to do!

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Yascha Mounk‏Verified account @Yascha_Mounk 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @SammyKoppelman @zeynep

          Needle Nate 🤣

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Fear Is Not Panic‏ @FearIsNotPanic 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Yascha_Mounk

          What are they supposed to do? Some of us understand the models and put them to use. 538 can't control how ppl use them. They have done as much as possible to communicate uncertainty clearly.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Claymotso‏ @khomotso 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Yascha_Mounk

          But then what's the proposal? Polls without forecasting models?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @khomotso @Yascha_Mounk

          Conceding what we cannot do. Stop pretending.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. Gianni Riotta‏Verified account @riotta 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Yascha_Mounk

          Dewey defeats Truman. Long story.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @riotta @Yascha_Mounk

          That came after the election, did not change people's behavior, though. These forecasts do.

          4 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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