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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      Yep. The polls were systematically wrong *again*. Also, the forecasts—which led to a sense of certainty of a Biden win, since their fragility to even tiny shift is not understood well—also likely affected the outcome: more R turnout, more ticket-splitting. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323976110510657539 …pic.twitter.com/0rXDov30nH

      13 replies 99 retweets 374 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      "Ticket-splitting" might have come not just from Biden at top voters: I know of people who could not vote for Trump, but did not want Democratic trifecta and voted for & worked hard for R senators. Also Maine: some Collins voters may have thought she'd in a Dem Senate/Prez setup.

      8 replies 11 retweets 103 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      Look, if I were betting, I'd bet Biden would win, probably comfortably. He might still win, but narrowly. But I was *uncertain*. I don't think we can model rare events well. We can't poll well anymore, let alone during a pandemic. But uncertainty isn't what forecasts communicate.

      11 replies 23 retweets 300 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Jason Spicer

      Yes. I know electoral forecasts are one thing among many things, but it's part of a broader pattern where we focus too much on the wrong things. We just need to do better acknowledging when we honestly don't know, and when predicting is besides the point.https://twitter.com/spicerjason/status/1324036088177004544 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Jason Spicer @spicerjason
      As @zeynep notes in @nytimes, this @The_JOP study's experiments show election forecasts confuse voters, reduce turnout, + change voting behavior. Simply put: publishing forecasts can change results, a variation of the observer effect. Worth pondering. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/708682 …
      5 replies 23 retweets 163 likes
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    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      Updated my pre-election op-ed on the case for ignoring forecasts. I know, I know. But there's the future. We can't poll with enough certainty and precision; we can't do good models of events that happen only once every four years; it distorts the process https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/opinion/election-forecasts-modeling-flaws.html …pic.twitter.com/ylgVjF1UYW

      3 replies 26 retweets 141 likes
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    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      Now people are telling me that the problem isn't the model, it's that polls are off (again). Well, yeah. I wrote that in the piece. Why then are we so focused on forecasts that don't have reliable data and whose models can only be evaluated once every four years—i.e not really?

      22 replies 13 retweets 253 likes
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    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      So it’s now: okay the polls were off but we will weight the polls better next time. Next time!!! The undercount weren’t “shy” or necessarily suffering from social desirability. Some of them think of the pollsters as the cultural enemy. Good luck modeling that void with weights.🙄

      18 replies 27 retweets 327 likes
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    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Sadie Gurman

      The problems outlined here, especially non-random low trust of pollsters, are not fixable by demographic weights. Or any method I can think of—besides already knowing the answer. Not amount of talent or effort can model this. Sometimes one can guess right. Sometimes not.https://twitter.com/sgurman/status/1324150511323500546 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Sadie GurmanVerified account @sgurman
      Some believe a distrust of institutions is more pervasive than anticipated across many voter groups, and that it leads conservative voters to avoid participating in polls in disproportionate numbers. The story everyone wants to read by ⁦@aaronzitner⁩ https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-went-wrong-with-the-polls-this-year-11604536409 …
      14 replies 20 retweets 141 likes
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    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Nate Silver

      Nice denominator except that you barely need polls to call about 40 of those states. Of the remaining 10, the polls are off by large numbers systematically in practically all of them. (Some got the coin toss right! Very reassuring!)https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324379322740867073 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
      And a lot of it is because of the blue shift in late-counted ballots. If we go to bed at 1am on Wednesday and polls have called 48/50 states correctly and Biden's won the popular vote by 5.3 points or something, I don't think there's a "polls blew it again!" narrative.
      Show this thread
      10 replies 27 retweets 316 likes
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    10. Alex Dunham‏ @andunham 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      Why don't you address the central purpose of his models, as he has explained it his entire career? To improve on foolish punditry! As long as there are polls, careful modeling of their implications is far better than punditry! I don't understand why you don't address this point?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @andunham

      Because I wrote multiple articles addressing exactly this point, including the one you are responding to without reading?

      9:26 AM - 5 Nov 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Alex Dunham‏ @andunham 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Where, though? Do you mean this? "modeling has been incorporated into the horse-race coverage."

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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