It ain't a shy Trump thing if Susan Collins is beating her polls by a ton... That is, the problem doesn't seem to be Trump specific...
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But to judge the extent of the polling errors we really got to wait until vote counts are more complete. I'll leave you with a scary thought: I'm not sure any individual poll average miss in a swing state was outside the 95% confidence interval for state polling.
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Replying to @zeynep @ForecasterEnten
Huh? You can have confidence intervals even without the central limit theorem applying. Certainly for even the smallest samples. You just need to use the correct formulation rather than assume normality.
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Replying to @arikmotskin @ForecasterEnten
Yes, but for polling data. That's not what we're doing here. (I meant it only for what the 95 percent confidence intervals are for these polls.)
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You don't need the central limit theorem unless you are looking at distribution of means of successive samples (which the CLT says is normal in the limit), but the actual population dist you are sampling from doesn't need to be normal itself.
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I'll dive into some appendices. Thank you!
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