It ain't a shy Trump thing if Susan Collins is beating her polls by a ton... That is, the problem doesn't seem to be Trump specific...
Yes, but for polling data. That's not what we're doing here. (I meant it only for what the 95 percent confidence intervals are for these polls.)
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I think it's fair to say that if there is a systematic bias, then traditional ways of computing CIs are meaningless or misleading. But that's separate from the central limit theorem
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Do you know any pollsters adjusting their CI calculations? I usually read the appendices and have not seen anything different.
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You don't need the central limit theorem unless you are looking at distribution of means of successive samples (which the CLT says is normal in the limit), but the actual population dist you are sampling from doesn't need to be normal itself.
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I'll dive into some appendices. Thank you!
End of conversation
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