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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Nov 2020

    zeynep tufekci Retweeted Bruce Mehlman

    Folks, the exit polls are garbage this year. They just can't not be. They'll try to fix this by weighting (as they tried in 2016; most of the numbers that got publicized that we remember were NOT the final numbers) but we can't weight our way out of this degree of non-randomness.https://twitter.com/bpmehlman/status/1324157591082192896 …

    zeynep tufekci added,

    Bruce Mehlman @bpmehlman
    NO WAY this data is correct... Nat'l Exit polls says Trump +1 among female college graduates, better than male college grads?! .@nytimes links to their data, last item when you scroll down (copied below), but must be a typo, no? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html … pic.twitter.com/gu0sdDf2LZ
    6:00 AM - 5 Nov 2020
    • 236 Retweets
    • 865 Likes
    • Hats and haggis Isaac Miller maria smith Christopher Moore StrangerThenRedz Marf danfnz Jules Shen Vitalis O. Makhotsa
    22 replies 236 retweets 865 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Nov 2020

        First, these are already *preliminary* (meaning they will be adjusted with weights) and I think it is irresponsible to publish them now. Of course people will think they mean something if they are published. Two, after adjustments, they should be published with giant caveats.pic.twitter.com/CiQ4BZRW1M

        3 replies 13 retweets 124 likes
        Show this thread
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Nov 2020

        Three, feel free to ignore them. This year, we have precinct level vote counts. That's data. Most everything else is vaporware for purposes of *precision*.

        4 replies 12 retweets 173 likes
        Show this thread
      4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Nov 2020

        zeynep tufekci Retweeted Wanting better

        Yeah everyone remembers the wrong figure even from 2016—same problem, preliminary data published and went viral— and I actually don't trust the final one either. 2016 was also a realignment year aka we don't know really the weights.https://twitter.com/cschneider8224/status/1324353953719635969 …

        zeynep tufekci added,

        Wanting better @cschneider8224
        Replying to @Wikisteff @zeynep and 3 others
        Though this was overstated in 2016. That 53% figure stuck but the real count showed white women split 47% (Trump) to 46% (Clinton). Still appalling but it did make me want to see final vote tallies.
        2 replies 10 retweets 83 likes
        Show this thread
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Jason Miller‏ @jbmp51 5 Nov 2020
        Replying to @zeynep @thegarance

        Exit polls? With massive mail in? Why bother

        1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
      3. Ana Valens  🏴‏Verified account @acvalens 5 Nov 2020
        Replying to @jbmp51 @zeynep @thegarance

        Per CNN, this was accounted for in exit polls https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/02/politics/exit-polls-2020-pandemic/index.html …pic.twitter.com/ZjSpL3iLoh

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        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Unfitforpurpose‏ @unfitforpurpose 5 Nov 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        Any idea why the exit polls are so bad in the US? In the UK they've been the one kind of polling that's proved to be accurate.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Gayton Gomez‏ @gpgomez 5 Nov 2020
        Replying to @unfitforpurpose @zeynep

        This year, it's largely because a huge number of votes were early or by mail, and those were overwhelmingly cast by Democrats. As far as I know, no exit polling for them. Because of that, election day votes were disproportionately Republican compared to a typical year. 1/2

        4 replies 0 retweets 19 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Steffen Christensen‏ @Wikisteff 5 Nov 2020
        Replying to @zeynep @tylikcat

        Honesty, it's hard to see how they could get white women so wrong. Like, *really* hard to see that. I suspect a lot of white women actually voted Trump, which explains a lot about the election overall. /c @VoiceOfFranky @paulisci

        2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
      3. Dr. Catherine Kehl‏ @tylikcat 5 Nov 2020
        Replying to @Wikisteff @zeynep and

        The people who voted *in person* were not only not a representative sample, they were specifically politically weighted. Though yeah, I'm sure a lot of white women voted for Trump.

        1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. phil c‏ @peacads 5 Nov 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        And it really doesn't matter. Nor does twitter prognostication. The people who should be in the know about this (political consultants, pols, etc), hopefully are.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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