I like the optimism. But the problem is we already have maybe 95% of the sample missing, most missing not at random for *different* reasons, and a very important segment because they’re actively hostile to pollsters. Results are similar probably because pollsters herd.
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The worst case scenario is they will get the right weights in 2024 and lull themselves thinking they fixed it rather than they put the the thumb on the scale in the correct way one time. There has to be some degree of random polling for a poll to be a poll. Fix that, sure.
5:05 AM - 5 Nov 2020
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