More model uncertainty! NYT needle (another model!) may be overcorrecting for Trump because he did better than expected in FL: model assumes same in NC + GA—but if FL is only because of Miami Cubans, that won't be the case. Wait for the counts. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323811540018077696 …
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Nate Silver
Correcting my own garbled tweet! The 80% chance of Trump winning both is model overshoot, say Nates Cohn and Silver. Errors are sometimes correlated & sometimes not. My error: it doesn't pertain to the presidential chances (which NYT says would be equal).https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323813664164585474 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538I love the Needle, etc. but analyzing anything based on election night returns is tricky just because we've never had this huge Election Day vs. early split along partisan lines before. Increases uncertainty, and means you should revert a bit back to 50/50.4 replies 13 retweets 107 likesShow this thread -
To people asking: I can't predict this. I don't know how anyone can. My prediction is that we will not have a for certain answer tonight (many key states will be counting into tomorrow and then there may well be court cases).
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Yep. The polls were systematically wrong *again*. Also, the forecasts—which led to a sense of certainty of a Biden win, since their fragility to even tiny shift is not understood well—also likely affected the outcome: more R turnout, more ticket-splitting. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323976110510657539 …pic.twitter.com/0rXDov30nH
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"Ticket-splitting" might have come not just from Biden at top voters: I know of people who could not vote for Trump, but did not want Democratic trifecta and voted for & worked hard for R senators. Also Maine: some Collins voters may have thought she'd in a Dem Senate/Prez setup.
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Look, if I were betting, I'd bet Biden would win, probably comfortably. He might still win, but narrowly. But I was *uncertain*. I don't think we can model rare events well. We can't poll well anymore, let alone during a pandemic. But uncertainty isn't what forecasts communicate.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Jason Spicer
Yes. I know electoral forecasts are one thing among many things, but it's part of a broader pattern where we focus too much on the wrong things. We just need to do better acknowledging when we honestly don't know, and when predicting is besides the point.https://twitter.com/spicerjason/status/1324036088177004544 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Jason Spicer @spicerjasonAs@zeynep notes in@nytimes, this@The_JOP study's experiments show election forecasts confuse voters, reduce turnout, + change voting behavior. Simply put: publishing forecasts can change results, a variation of the observer effect. Worth pondering. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/708682 …5 replies 23 retweets 163 likesShow this thread -
Updated my pre-election op-ed on the case for ignoring forecasts. I know, I know. But there's the future. We can't poll with enough certainty and precision; we can't do good models of events that happen only once every four years; it distorts the process https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/opinion/election-forecasts-modeling-flaws.html …pic.twitter.com/ylgVjF1UYW
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Now people are telling me that the problem isn't the model, it's that polls are off (again). Well, yeah. I wrote that in the piece. Why then are we so focused on forecasts that don't have reliable data and whose models can only be evaluated once every four years—i.e not really?
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Replying to @zeynep
Or as a professor I knew once said, if the data don’t fit the model, the data must be wrong. Seriously. He said that. If people would just vote to the forecast, we’d be home free.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
A lot of similar arguments made about now, inspired spirituality by this professor gaslit.
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