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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Nate Silver

      Correcting my own garbled tweet! The 80% chance of Trump winning both is model overshoot, say Nates Cohn and Silver. Errors are sometimes correlated & sometimes not. My error: it doesn't pertain to the presidential chances (which NYT says would be equal).https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323813664164585474 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
      I love the Needle, etc. but analyzing anything based on election night returns is tricky just because we've never had this huge Election Day vs. early split along partisan lines before. Increases uncertainty, and means you should revert a bit back to 50/50.
      4 replies 13 retweets 107 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Nov 2020

      To people asking: I can't predict this. I don't know how anyone can. My prediction is that we will not have a for certain answer tonight (many key states will be counting into tomorrow and then there may well be court cases).

      5 replies 19 retweets 156 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      Yep. The polls were systematically wrong *again*. Also, the forecasts—which led to a sense of certainty of a Biden win, since their fragility to even tiny shift is not understood well—also likely affected the outcome: more R turnout, more ticket-splitting. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323976110510657539 …pic.twitter.com/0rXDov30nH

      13 replies 99 retweets 374 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      "Ticket-splitting" might have come not just from Biden at top voters: I know of people who could not vote for Trump, but did not want Democratic trifecta and voted for & worked hard for R senators. Also Maine: some Collins voters may have thought she'd in a Dem Senate/Prez setup.

      8 replies 11 retweets 103 likes
      Show this thread
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      Look, if I were betting, I'd bet Biden would win, probably comfortably. He might still win, but narrowly. But I was *uncertain*. I don't think we can model rare events well. We can't poll well anymore, let alone during a pandemic. But uncertainty isn't what forecasts communicate.

      11 replies 23 retweets 300 likes
      Show this thread
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Jason Spicer

      Yes. I know electoral forecasts are one thing among many things, but it's part of a broader pattern where we focus too much on the wrong things. We just need to do better acknowledging when we honestly don't know, and when predicting is besides the point.https://twitter.com/spicerjason/status/1324036088177004544 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Jason Spicer @spicerjason
      As @zeynep notes in @nytimes, this @The_JOP study's experiments show election forecasts confuse voters, reduce turnout, + change voting behavior. Simply put: publishing forecasts can change results, a variation of the observer effect. Worth pondering. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/708682 …
      5 replies 23 retweets 163 likes
      Show this thread
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      Updated my pre-election op-ed on the case for ignoring forecasts. I know, I know. But there's the future. We can't poll with enough certainty and precision; we can't do good models of events that happen only once every four years; it distorts the process https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/opinion/election-forecasts-modeling-flaws.html …pic.twitter.com/ylgVjF1UYW

      3 replies 26 retweets 141 likes
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    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      Now people are telling me that the problem isn't the model, it's that polls are off (again). Well, yeah. I wrote that in the piece. Why then are we so focused on forecasts that don't have reliable data and whose models can only be evaluated once every four years—i.e not really?

      22 replies 13 retweets 253 likes
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    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      So it’s now: okay the polls were off but we will weight the polls better next time. Next time!!! The undercount weren’t “shy” or necessarily suffering from social desirability. Some of them think of the pollsters as the cultural enemy. Good luck modeling that void with weights.🙄

      18 replies 27 retweets 327 likes
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    10. Paul Speaker‏ @fattailedstat 4 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      Selzer figured it out. I'd like to hear what she thinks.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020
      Replying to @fattailedstat

      Almost certainly used weights that worked out this time. But that’s exactly why we look at polling averages: you can get things right one time without carryovers. There’s no guarantee that the essentially ad hoc weighting will be correct the next time. It’s a void. Can’t measure.

      4:58 PM - 4 Nov 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 5 Likes
      • Discover FVM Mary Lacroix Bullfrog Rohan Naidu
      0 replies 1 retweet 5 likes

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