Nothing. Before the election, organize, donate, vote. The forecasts are fragile for so many reasons; plus this year has pandemic and now we have, likely, court battles.https://twitter.com/CorbinSupak/status/1323811695760912385 …
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The problems outlined here, especially non-random low trust of pollsters, are not fixable by demographic weights. Or any method I can think of—besides already knowing the answer. Not amount of talent or effort can model this. Sometimes one can guess right. Sometimes not.https://twitter.com/sgurman/status/1324150511323500546 …
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Nice denominator except that you barely need polls to call about 40 of those states. Of the remaining 10, the polls are off by large numbers systematically in practically all of them. (Some got the coin toss right! Very reassuring!)https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324379322740867073 …
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Empirical proof for a possibility I had mentioned in my articles. The increasing certainty people felt over Biden's presidency might well have been one of the factors that cost Democrats the Senate.https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1325823456680808450 …
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Cunningham just conceded the NC Senate. Look, the things wrong with our polls are not fixable by any known method. Pollsters may guess the post-hoc weights right here and there, but the uncertainty is giant and structural. What then is another question. First, let’s face reality.pic.twitter.com/FyOnafGMbL
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Collins won ME by almost 10%. The most damning part of these misses is they’re in the same systematic direction as the 2016 misses—so you know the pollsters tried to correct for it. They still missed big. We can’t model and weight dark matter electorate with these response rates.pic.twitter.com/9F93mdYvDY
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I like all the "why were the polls were so systematically wrong *again*" stories coming out, but here's the part that keeps getting skipped. The problems people are identifying are all plausible AND not fixable by any known method like weighting. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html …pic.twitter.com/CgA65TFg1V
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I'm just going to put an excerpt here from my NYT piece on why polls and forecasts were even less trustworthy in 2020 I published *before* the election. I'm not making post-hoc claims here. (Current text updated a bit now to reflect that's what happened) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/opinion/election-forecasts-modeling-flaws.html …pic.twitter.com/txR41T6G7I
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I think we have a lot of this going on. Also it’s hard for people who think of themselves as quants to admit they are now more in pundit category—feeding the horserace but without a superior empirical basis. The polls aren’t fixable by any known method. Let’s talk about that.https://twitter.com/nathanjurgenson/status/1326564758795870209 …
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The pollsters ARE cultural enemies.
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How so? First time I've encountered this idea
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