Even if we were on some uninterested mission to evaluate presidential forecast models, that would be a stupid way to do it. We can't model well both because we can't poll well and because they are too rare to give us a chance to test the models. Sooner we accept this, the better.
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the uncertainty was baked into the model itself. you can quibble with whether it had enough, but it does seem like throwing up your hands and saying "the future is unknowable" is not that great a plan
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no, the uncertainty wasn't baked into the model, quite the opposite. The MoE for most polls is ~3% and the collective polls for swing states were off by more than 5%. False precision + false accuracy = false narratives that wreak havoc on efficiency of effort
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let's wait until the votes are in to fully pass judgment accounting for the CIs, etc.
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All socio-political knowledge is probabilistic. And it seeks to catch up to plastic adaptations of actors and groups, always imperfectly. Still, no single state outcome has been very surprising at all. Campaigns use them because they are better than alternatives (none)
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