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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020
      Replying to @mattyglesias

      Even if we were on some uninterested mission to evaluate presidential forecast models, that would be a stupid way to do it. We can't model well both because we can't poll well and because they are too rare to give us a chance to test the models. Sooner we accept this, the better.

      8 replies 9 retweets 146 likes
    3. James Tanner‏ @daggaroosta 4 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @mattyglesias

      It would help if the pollsters were transparent about their weighting. Then interested observers could at least understand why polls differ in a given cycle. But point taken - when you don't have a sufficient sample size or a stable sample, each new data point is an outlier

      1 reply 3 retweets 8 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020
      Replying to @daggaroosta @mattyglesias

      We just can't do this. Not with 3% response rates, and not when pollsters are seen as part of the polarization. I just don't see how we can argue the model is great despite unreliable data and no sensible way to validate it! Come on, folks. Writing is on the wall. 2016, 2020.

      1 reply 5 retweets 59 likes
    5. This Tweet is unavailable.
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020
      Replying to @mattyglesias @daggaroosta

      And it distorts the campaigns & us. I don't want to go back to vaporware pundit narratives either, but at least they didn't come with an aura of scientism. If we're gonna do astrology, let's at least put it in the horoscope section. Not everything lends to well-modeled forecasts.

      12:29 PM - 4 Nov 2020
      • 7 Retweets
      • 78 Likes
      • Discover Isadora Campregher Paiva Jane Flegal cronenberg wound kris ippus pdz dyd Diami Rohan Naidu
      5 replies 7 retweets 78 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Jeremy Wallace‏ @jerometenk 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @mattyglesias @daggaroosta

          Far from eliminating punditry, forecasting discourse has just quantified it.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Jeremy Wallace‏ @jerometenk 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @jerometenk @zeynep and

          It's still sports but like NBA analysis that gets into salary cap discussions, it adds details that matter--thinking about reactions of different voters and actually looking at polls rather than imaginary Applebee's patrons--but it still gamifies it.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. F‏ @F67335365 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @mattyglesias @daggaroosta

          Get rid of polls! All these indictments are actually about polls. If we have polls, we need models to accurately interpret and frame the information (good or bad) they're providing. With you on the idea of getting rid of polls and horseraces. Models, though, aren't the problem.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Marc Milgrom  🇺🇸‏ @cookedinwine 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @F67335365 @zeynep and

          With the alternative being clueless about what the public thinks, that leaves people like Trump who have no self-doubt and run on whatever base instinct is at high tide. (Not my original thought, but from Z's fellow Atlantic writer David Graham: https://apple.news/Albkboa1kT3ugje3f6-bVIw …)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Brendan Nyhan‏Verified account @BrendanNyhan 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @mattyglesias @daggaroosta

          but why does this have to be so binary? it's not astrology and it's not weather forecasting - both are straw men. it's a hard-to-forecast social science process. I agree gets too much attention given the challenges & uncertainty underestimated but that doesn't mean it's astrology

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias @daggaroosta

          I did not say all models in social science are astrology. But it's hard to defend the presidential modeling as it is. So many major issues, including we're in a pandemic! We should have just said that, especially this year, stop refreshing that forecast. Too much uncertainty.

          2 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
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        2. Dilan Esper‏ @dilanesper 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @mattyglesias @daggaroosta

          You have been on a roll today, but this is my only (minor) disagreement. Punditry was never as bad as the data guys said it was. You actually learn a lot talking to campaigns and voters, watching spending, counting lawn signs, etc.! It may not be a number, but it's not useless.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Greg Borenstein‏ @atduskgreg 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @mattyglesias @daggaroosta

          The primary output of these Polling-Driven Journalism operations is to make the horse race story more dramatic so it pulls more eyeballs. It plays on people’s fears by offering them a false sense of control instead of informing them about issues or candidates or activism.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. James Tanner‏ @daggaroosta 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @atduskgreg @zeynep @mattyglesias

          And it's pushed by the electioneering cottage industry because it makes otherwise-unviable candidates look viable and thus creates more places for anxious small donors to put their money. And that leads to a mountain of wasted effort in unwinnable races

          0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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