Even if we were on some uninterested mission to evaluate presidential forecast models, that would be a stupid way to do it. We can't model well both because we can't poll well and because they are too rare to give us a chance to test the models. Sooner we accept this, the better.
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Far from eliminating punditry, forecasting discourse has just quantified it.
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It's still sports but like NBA analysis that gets into salary cap discussions, it adds details that matter--thinking about reactions of different voters and actually looking at polls rather than imaginary Applebee's patrons--but it still gamifies it.
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Get rid of polls! All these indictments are actually about polls. If we have polls, we need models to accurately interpret and frame the information (good or bad) they're providing. With you on the idea of getting rid of polls and horseraces. Models, though, aren't the problem.
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With the alternative being clueless about what the public thinks, that leaves people like Trump who have no self-doubt and run on whatever base instinct is at high tide. (Not my original thought, but from Z's fellow Atlantic writer David Graham: https://apple.news/Albkboa1kT3ugje3f6-bVIw …)
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but why does this have to be so binary? it's not astrology and it's not weather forecasting - both are straw men. it's a hard-to-forecast social science process. I agree gets too much attention given the challenges & uncertainty underestimated but that doesn't mean it's astrology
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I did not say all models in social science are astrology. But it's hard to defend the presidential modeling as it is. So many major issues, including we're in a pandemic! We should have just said that, especially this year, stop refreshing that forecast. Too much uncertainty.
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You have been on a roll today, but this is my only (minor) disagreement. Punditry was never as bad as the data guys said it was. You actually learn a lot talking to campaigns and voters, watching spending, counting lawn signs, etc.! It may not be a number, but it's not useless.
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The primary output of these Polling-Driven Journalism operations is to make the horse race story more dramatic so it pulls more eyeballs. It plays on people’s fears by offering them a false sense of control instead of informing them about issues or candidates or activism.
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And it's pushed by the electioneering cottage industry because it makes otherwise-unviable candidates look viable and thus creates more places for anxious small donors to put their money. And that leads to a mountain of wasted effort in unwinnable races
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