Even if we were on some uninterested mission to evaluate presidential forecast models, that would be a stupid way to do it. We can't model well both because we can't poll well and because they are too rare to give us a chance to test the models. Sooner we accept this, the better.
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as opposed to the things you normally do?
End of conversation
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I defended 538 after 2016, but it's harder this time. Don't necessarily blame the people there, either. It just turns out this isn't something we know how to model reliably (assuming it's even possible to do so).
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