Even if we were on some uninterested mission to evaluate presidential forecast models, that would be a stupid way to do it. We can't model well both because we can't poll well and because they are too rare to give us a chance to test the models. Sooner we accept this, the better.
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Ptolemaic systems actually had more and better data to work with!
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you've convinced me (in tandem w/this massive miss)
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Changing vote totals hasn't been ruled out. Feds said Ru breeched most states in 16 and we KNOW Trump campaign shared election data. Combine that with polling is generally pretty accurate based on sampling size and blaming all the polls for missing this call is a stretch.
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