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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. This Tweet is unavailable.
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020
      Replying to @mattyglesias

      Even if we were on some uninterested mission to evaluate presidential forecast models, that would be a stupid way to do it. We can't model well both because we can't poll well and because they are too rare to give us a chance to test the models. Sooner we accept this, the better.

      12:02 PM - 4 Nov 2020
      • 9 Retweets
      • 146 Likes
      • Discover Dan Leonard PropOrNot ID Service 🇺🇸 Ramsey Merbert Beth Carpenter Colin MacDonald Matthew Calamari Isadora Campregher Paiva CasualtiesOfTheDay
      8 replies 9 retweets 146 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. F‏ @F67335365 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @mattyglesias

          I think the argument would be that models shouldn't be separated from the contextualizing journalism around them. @FiveThirtyEight did an incredible job of framing uncertainty, actively countering confidence, and emphasizing many scenarios (including what happened) were possible

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. electricblue‏ @Dreamscythe 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @F67335365 @zeynep and

          they explain uncertainty but nobody reads it they see the % and decide for themselves what that means.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          pic.twitter.com/88t5IvZQT3

          3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
        3. Matthew Noah Smith‏ @MattNoahSmith 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @mattyglesias

          Ptolemaic systems actually had more and better data to work with!

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Marie‏ @mariepsyphd 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @mattyglesias

          They must become less important in election coverage, if not outright dismissed. (1) We don’t know what impact they have on people’s voting engagement. (2) They most certainly occupy time which could be spent on the coverage of issues rather than horserace tallies.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. argyriou‏ @argyriou15 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @mattyglesias

          argyriou Retweeted David Burge

          https://twitter.com/iowahawkblog/status/1323983271844335616?s=20 …

          argyriou added,

          David Burge @iowahawkblog
          It's one thing to reweigh your sample so it's roughly demographically similar to the underlying population. It's another thing to reweigh your sample to be representative of the vast majority of people who *don't want to be sampled*.
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Some rando‏ @UltraCougar 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @mattyglesias

          So what is the practical solution(s)? I'm genuinely curious, because something needs to be fixed.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. James Tanner‏ @daggaroosta 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @mattyglesias

          It would help if the pollsters were transparent about their weighting. Then interested observers could at least understand why polls differ in a given cycle. But point taken - when you don't have a sufficient sample size or a stable sample, each new data point is an outlier

          1 reply 3 retweets 8 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @daggaroosta @mattyglesias

          We just can't do this. Not with 3% response rates, and not when pollsters are seen as part of the polarization. I just don't see how we can argue the model is great despite unreliable data and no sensible way to validate it! Come on, folks. Writing is on the wall. 2016, 2020.

          1 reply 5 retweets 59 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. RichardT‏ @xthread 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @mattyglesias

          I think 'polling,' as we've known it since Gallup, is dead, with the migration of communications to hypertargeted 'advertising' and all-platform caller ID. So means we're back to a world of 'all politics is local,' and if you're not a machine politician, you're not a politician

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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