I think the argument would be that models shouldn't be separated from the contextualizing journalism around them. @FiveThirtyEight did an incredible job of framing uncertainty, actively countering confidence, and emphasizing many scenarios (including what happened) were possible
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they explain uncertainty but nobody reads it they see the % and decide for themselves what that means.
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Ptolemaic systems actually had more and better data to work with!
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They must become less important in election coverage, if not outright dismissed. (1) We don’t know what impact they have on people’s voting engagement. (2) They most certainly occupy time which could be spent on the coverage of issues rather than horserace tallies.
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So what is the practical solution(s)? I'm genuinely curious, because something needs to be fixed.
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It would help if the pollsters were transparent about their weighting. Then interested observers could at least understand why polls differ in a given cycle. But point taken - when you don't have a sufficient sample size or a stable sample, each new data point is an outlier
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We just can't do this. Not with 3% response rates, and not when pollsters are seen as part of the polarization. I just don't see how we can argue the model is great despite unreliable data and no sensible way to validate it! Come on, folks. Writing is on the wall. 2016, 2020.
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I think 'polling,' as we've known it since Gallup, is dead, with the migration of communications to hypertargeted 'advertising' and all-platform caller ID. So means we're back to a world of 'all politics is local,' and if you're not a machine politician, you're not a politician
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