Beware arguments of the form "indicator X was right and polls were wrong" 1. Looks like substantial polling error but engagement on FB public pages, um, unlikely to be better. 2. By this logic, anything that favors conservatives would be better. Why is FB page engagement the key? https://twitter.com/kevinroose/status/1323900526816227330 …
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seems like a skin in the game argument for betting markets. in my opinion, the pollsters need to double the MOE, which is just sampling variance, assuming no bias (in the data science sense) https://engineering.stanford.edu/magazine/article/margin-error-bigger-you-think …
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if I were a Nate, I'd ensemble - polls - betting - social metrics - Ray Fair type model
@zeynep 's point that polling is an essentially endogenous reflexive process like markets, holds. statistical assumptions are invalid, can't do out-of sample evaluation for a 1-time event - Show replies
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I will never forget when a boston firefighter (the apouse of a friend) quoted Russia Today when arguing against Clinton and in support of Trump in 2016 in a post with me on Facebook
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sure - I'm open to all of this, but need testable hypotheses!
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Also, a lot of people, especially the young, no longer pick up their phones, because they are busy with social media etc.. Polling by phone will not measure those.
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Hm, but what we know from Facebook data (engagement on public pages only) presents such an incomplete picture of the political discussion. It's not that we can't learn from it, so much as it's very hard to generalize from - harder even than the very troubled state of polls.
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It's a signal people shouldn't ignore. The idea isn't that it's representative of the whole country or everyone. But it's a real signal, and a strong one if you ask me.
End of conversation
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