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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Brendan Nyhan‏Verified account @BrendanNyhan 4 Nov 2020

      Brendan Nyhan Retweeted

      Beware arguments of the form "indicator X was right and polls were wrong" 1. Looks like substantial polling error but engagement on FB public pages, um, unlikely to be better. 2. By this logic, anything that favors conservatives would be better. Why is FB page engagement the key? https://twitter.com/kevinroose/status/1323900526816227330 …

      Brendan Nyhan added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      4 replies 7 retweets 51 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020
      Replying to @BrendanNyhan

      Because it reflects something very real about people? I’ve been saying this for a decade, but imo Facebook is not best understood in “media effects” tradition. It’s socialization, both reflective of it and a dynamic in it. And it’s thus underestimated by looking at it as “media.”

      8:53 AM - 4 Nov 2020
      • 4 Retweets
      • 65 Likes
      • Discover Gail Nevin Ilya david rubien Tom Yemm Arjun Moorthy Vincenzo Latronico Ana Delicado David Reid Clausen
      5 replies 4 retweets 65 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. StreetEYE‏ @StreetEYE 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @BrendanNyhan

          seems like a skin in the game argument for betting markets. in my opinion, the pollsters need to double the MOE, which is just sampling variance, assuming no bias (in the data science sense) https://engineering.stanford.edu/magazine/article/margin-error-bigger-you-think …

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. StreetEYE‏ @StreetEYE 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @StreetEYE @zeynep @BrendanNyhan

          if I were a Nate, I'd ensemble - polls - betting - social metrics - Ray Fair type model @zeynep 's point that polling is an essentially endogenous reflexive process like markets, holds. statistical assumptions are invalid, can't do out-of sample evaluation for a 1-time event

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. per your priors‏ @alohadeano 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @BrendanNyhan

          I will never forget when a boston firefighter (the apouse of a friend) quoted Russia Today when arguing against Clinton and in support of Trump in 2016 in a post with me on Facebook

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Brendan Nyhan‏Verified account @BrendanNyhan 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          sure - I'm open to all of this, but need testable hypotheses!

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Elias Hasle‏ @EliasHasle 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @BrendanNyhan

          Also, a lot of people, especially the young, no longer pick up their phones, because they are busy with social media etc.. Polling by phone will not measure those.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Alex Engler‏ @AlexCEngler 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @BrendanNyhan

          Hm, but what we know from Facebook data (engagement on public pages only) presents such an incomplete picture of the political discussion. It's not that we can't learn from it, so much as it's very hard to generalize from - harder even than the very troubled state of polls.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @AlexCEngler @BrendanNyhan

          It's a signal people shouldn't ignore. The idea isn't that it's representative of the whole country or everyone. But it's a real signal, and a strong one if you ask me.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation

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