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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Mark Healey‏ @HealeyParera 4 Nov 2020

      Mark Healey Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      It would be bad form to say @zeynep was prophetic about taking election models as prophecies, but...https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1322954214641979392 …

      Mark Healey added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      Folks, stop refreshing the forecasts. The comfort you seek isn't there—and can't be. The excessive uncertainty this year–especially about turnout in a pandemic and which votes will count—makes these models structurally less useful than before. New piece: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/opinion/election-forecasts-modeling-flaws.html … pic.twitter.com/wzT3bN32uV
      Show this thread
      1 reply 2 retweets 22 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020
      Replying to @HealeyParera

      Thank you. Though I have to say, polls were wrong isn't shocking. They're polls, after all. My problem has been the aura of certainty around the forecasts. It's just not possible to shake that aura given the way they are presented, discussed and consumed. Have to change that.

      7:20 AM - 4 Nov 2020
      • 54 Likes
      • Gail Nevin Tom Yemm Balaji Tina Melanie Thomas Turner Erik JohnBagnose
      4 replies 0 retweets 54 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. unconscientious objector‏ @HumidorSoggy 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @HealeyParera

          To be fair to modelers, they are the ones stressing uncertainty more than almost anyone else.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Mark Healey‏ @HealeyParera 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @HumidorSoggy @zeynep

          Yes, but not in a way their audience seems to grasp (or want to hear).

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Ben Heap‏ @theblueposts 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @HealeyParera

          People like certainty, without it the world is a very scary place.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Mark Healey‏ @HealeyParera 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @theblueposts @zeynep

          True, though if the certainty generates more uncertainty...

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Mark Healey‏ @HealeyParera 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Oh yes, agreed completely.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Julie Liss‏ @julie_liss 4 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @HealeyParera

          Given that we'll likely have very close elections for years to come, do polls even make sense any more?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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