People in my inbox with that are favorable or not to Biden. I never said that the models are wrong.
It's that they CANNOT be right OR wrong. The model probabilities you are seeing are NOT making that kind of prediction, and, crucially, the unknown unknowns are not factored in.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Jessica Hullman
If you're looking for a distraction: Excellent academic article from
@StatModeling@JessicaHullman@CBWlezien,@gelliottmorris &@JessicaHullman on communicating about forecasts—what they are, what they aren't. Again: the forecasts aren't wrong! Or right!https://twitter.com/JessicaHullman/status/1322981825040523271 …zeynep tufekci added,
Jessica Hullman @JessicaHullmanEchoes lots of points made in our article http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/jdm200907b.pdf … I wonder though what people would be doing if professionals didn't do forecasting? Overanalyzing polls? Anxiously querying friends? https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1322954214641979392 …3 replies 14 retweets 116 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Sam Stein
Without making claims about any other state or the outcome. (I don't know!). Polling has clearly missed Florida, at least. Polling in a year like this included extra uncertainty. And it's also plausible that forecasts impacted/energized voters differently.https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1323786156551581697 …
zeynep tufekci added,
3 replies 10 retweets 96 likesShow this thread -
This is how fragile those forecasts were. One state has a polling error, and the forecast now says Trump has one-in-three chance of winning. If errors are broadly correlated—not just Miami Cubans—the odds go up more. Big numbers don't imply big certainty. https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/ …pic.twitter.com/Hu1nCwRBEi
9 replies 34 retweets 209 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Corbin Supak
Nothing. Before the election, organize, donate, vote. The forecasts are fragile for so many reasons; plus this year has pandemic and now we have, likely, court battles.https://twitter.com/CorbinSupak/status/1323811695760912385 …
zeynep tufekci added,
3 replies 6 retweets 97 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Nate Cohn
More model uncertainty! NYT needle (another model!) may be overcorrecting for Trump because he did better than expected in FL: model assumes same in NC + GA—but if FL is only because of Miami Cubans, that won't be the case. Wait for the counts. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323811540018077696 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Nate CohnVerified account @Nate_CohnThere are a few things I pause at right now, though. One is that all three states are in the same model. We control for state and voting method. Does the flood of results in Florida bias us a bit in NC/GA, especially in Latino areas? I think that's at least possible in GA burbsShow this thread4 replies 41 retweets 281 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Nate Silver
Correcting my own garbled tweet! The 80% chance of Trump winning both is model overshoot, say Nates Cohn and Silver. Errors are sometimes correlated & sometimes not. My error: it doesn't pertain to the presidential chances (which NYT says would be equal).https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323813664164585474 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538I love the Needle, etc. but analyzing anything based on election night returns is tricky just because we've never had this huge Election Day vs. early split along partisan lines before. Increases uncertainty, and means you should revert a bit back to 50/50.4 replies 13 retweets 107 likesShow this thread -
To people asking: I can't predict this. I don't know how anyone can. My prediction is that we will not have a for certain answer tonight (many key states will be counting into tomorrow and then there may well be court cases).
5 replies 19 retweets 156 likesShow this thread -
Yep. The polls were systematically wrong *again*. Also, the forecasts—which led to a sense of certainty of a Biden win, since their fragility to even tiny shift is not understood well—also likely affected the outcome: more R turnout, more ticket-splitting. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323976110510657539 …pic.twitter.com/0rXDov30nH
13 replies 99 retweets 374 likesShow this thread -
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If polls are off by 3 percent, the forecast can go from 90% chance to 60% chance--basically even. That fragility is not understood or communicated well. People see big number and it communicates certainty.
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