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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Donna Murphy’s fake mole in Passion (1994)‏ @dan_p_simpson 3 Nov 2020

      Donna Murphy’s fake mole in Passion (1994) Retweeted Mona Chalabi

      It’s hard not to think, especially in light of the campaign messages over the last few days, that these hyper-“accurate”, exquisitely detailed models with no meaningful validation data might not be the best idea.https://twitter.com/MonaChalabi/status/1323819311400701953 …

      Donna Murphy’s fake mole in Passion (1994) added,

      Mona ChalabiVerified account @MonaChalabi
      Whatever happens, come tomorrow I will still fucking hate polling and how corrupt it is to predict democratic outcomes before people actually vote.
      6 replies 50 retweets 393 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Josh Pasek‏ @jmping 3 Nov 2020
      Replying to @dan_p_simpson @zeynep

      Polling isn’t about prediction, it is a picture of what people are thinking at a given moment. Forecasting models are about predicting, vent your fury at the right target.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Nov 2020
      Replying to @jmping @dan_p_simpson

      Well it’s turning out modeling rare events isn’t a good idea and polling is extra difficult in a pandemic.

      7:18 PM - 3 Nov 2020
      • 38 Retweets
      • 378 Likes
      • Discover Miriam Duran alex hayes Roger Bacon Nabih - Roberto Greco Michael Kieval ✨ 𝕂𝕙𝕒𝕪𝕪𝕒𝕞, 𝕀 𝕒𝕞 ᵍᵐ
      9 replies 38 retweets 378 likes
        1. Andy Schwarz, sponsored by Envelopes of Cash‏ @andyhre 3 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @jmping @dan_p_simpson

          ok, you win. :-)

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Sumit Bhardwaj‏ @bhardwajs_sumit 3 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @jmping @dan_p_simpson

          Yep, generally it's hard to have data to model rare events. And, polling is extra difficult when response rate is low and possibly, biased.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Josh Pasek‏ @jmping 3 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @dan_p_simpson

          Also, public preferences != voter turnout

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. AdamM‏ @themadmadamadam 3 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @jmping @dan_p_simpson

          You are the smartest human alive I s2g

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. TBashII‏ @RukhnamaLives 3 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @jmping @dan_p_simpson

          and everyone should spend more time outside and wear masks

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. unconscientious objector‏ @HumidorSoggy 3 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @jmping @dan_p_simpson

          Would it be better to have pundits sound off on whatever quack theory about the electorate serves their own interests?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Patrick Thornton‏Verified account @pwthornton 3 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @jmping @dan_p_simpson

          It’s modeling rare events that have ever changing inputs and hard to predict changes that is madness.

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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        1. Ramraj Velmurugan‏ @velramraj 3 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @jmping @dan_p_simpson

          Being overconfident that you're correcting for biases when you have no clue what those original biases were, is probably the issue. Perhaps they also know that if they truly model it correctly the it will stay at 50-50 forever and no one wants to click that!

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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