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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Nov 2020

      People in my inbox with that are favorable or not to Biden. I never said that the models are wrong.🙄 It's that they CANNOT be right OR wrong. The model probabilities you are seeing are NOT making that kind of prediction, and, crucially, the unknown unknowns are not factored in.

      11 replies 11 retweets 167 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Jessica Hullman

      If you're looking for a distraction: Excellent academic article from @StatModeling @JessicaHullman @CBWlezien, @gelliottmorris & @JessicaHullman on communicating about forecasts—what they are, what they aren't. Again: the forecasts aren't wrong! Or right!https://twitter.com/JessicaHullman/status/1322981825040523271 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Jessica Hullman @JessicaHullman
      Echoes lots of points made in our article http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/jdm200907b.pdf … I wonder though what people would be doing if professionals didn't do forecasting? Overanalyzing polls? Anxiously querying friends? https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1322954214641979392 …
      3 replies 14 retweets 116 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Sam Stein

      Without making claims about any other state or the outcome. (I don't know!). Polling has clearly missed Florida, at least. Polling in a year like this included extra uncertainty. And it's also plausible that forecasts impacted/energized voters differently.https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1323786156551581697 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Sam SteinVerified account @samstein
      And now we wait to see if the polling misses in Florida were unique to that state.
      3 replies 10 retweets 96 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Nov 2020

      This is how fragile those forecasts were. One state has a polling error, and the forecast now says Trump has one-in-three chance of winning. If errors are broadly correlated—not just Miami Cubans—the odds go up more. Big numbers don't imply big certainty. https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/ …pic.twitter.com/Hu1nCwRBEi

      9 replies 34 retweets 209 likes
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    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Corbin Supak

      Nothing. Before the election, organize, donate, vote. The forecasts are fragile for so many reasons; plus this year has pandemic and now we have, likely, court battles.https://twitter.com/CorbinSupak/status/1323811695760912385 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Corbin Supak @CorbinSupak
      Replying to @zeynep
      but what are you comparing this sort of forecasting to? what would perform better?
      3 replies 6 retweets 97 likes
      Show this thread
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Nate Cohn

      More model uncertainty! NYT needle (another model!) may be overcorrecting for Trump because he did better than expected in FL: model assumes same in NC + GA—but if FL is only because of Miami Cubans, that won't be the case. Wait for the counts. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323811540018077696 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Nate CohnVerified account @Nate_Cohn
      There are a few things I pause at right now, though. One is that all three states are in the same model. We control for state and voting method. Does the flood of results in Florida bias us a bit in NC/GA, especially in Latino areas? I think that's at least possible in GA burbs
      Show this thread
      4 replies 41 retweets 281 likes
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    8. James Poniewozik‏Verified account @poniewozik 3 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      The 80% is the current chance of those three states falling to Trump, I believe, not of Trump winning the election

      0 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
    9. This Tweet is unavailable.
    10. James Poniewozik‏Verified account @poniewozik 3 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      I think "Estimated Likelihood" means estimated likelihood of the scenario on the left happening, as things stand. (The design may be confusing. Maybe it's confusing me!)

      3 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Nov 2020
      Replying to @poniewozik

      Yeah, I went back and read the comments. I misread but the design is confusing.

      6:47 PM - 3 Nov 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • James Poniewozik
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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