People in my inbox with that are favorable or not to Biden. I never said that the models are wrong.
It's that they CANNOT be right OR wrong. The model probabilities you are seeing are NOT making that kind of prediction, and, crucially, the unknown unknowns are not factored in.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Jessica Hullman
If you're looking for a distraction: Excellent academic article from
@StatModeling@JessicaHullman@CBWlezien,@gelliottmorris &@JessicaHullman on communicating about forecasts—what they are, what they aren't. Again: the forecasts aren't wrong! Or right!https://twitter.com/JessicaHullman/status/1322981825040523271 …zeynep tufekci added,
Jessica Hullman @JessicaHullmanEchoes lots of points made in our article http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/jdm200907b.pdf … I wonder though what people would be doing if professionals didn't do forecasting? Overanalyzing polls? Anxiously querying friends? https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1322954214641979392 …3 replies 14 retweets 116 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Sam Stein
Without making claims about any other state or the outcome. (I don't know!). Polling has clearly missed Florida, at least. Polling in a year like this included extra uncertainty. And it's also plausible that forecasts impacted/energized voters differently.https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1323786156551581697 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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This is how fragile those forecasts were. One state has a polling error, and the forecast now says Trump has one-in-three chance of winning. If errors are broadly correlated—not just Miami Cubans—the odds go up more. Big numbers don't imply big certainty. https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/ …pic.twitter.com/Hu1nCwRBEi
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Corbin Supak
Nothing. Before the election, organize, donate, vote. The forecasts are fragile for so many reasons; plus this year has pandemic and now we have, likely, court battles.https://twitter.com/CorbinSupak/status/1323811695760912385 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Nate Cohn
More model uncertainty! NYT needle (another model!) may be overcorrecting for Trump because he did better than expected in FL: model assumes same in NC + GA—but if FL is only because of Miami Cubans, that won't be the case. Wait for the counts. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323811540018077696 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Nate CohnVerified account @Nate_CohnThere are a few things I pause at right now, though. One is that all three states are in the same model. We control for state and voting method. Does the flood of results in Florida bias us a bit in NC/GA, especially in Latino areas? I think that's at least possible in GA burbsShow this thread4 replies 41 retweets 281 likesShow this thread -
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Replying to @zeynep
The 80% is the current chance of those three states falling to Trump, I believe, not of Trump winning the election
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Replying to @zeynep
I think "Estimated Likelihood" means estimated likelihood of the scenario on the left happening, as things stand. (The design may be confusing. Maybe it's confusing me!)
3 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
Yeah, I went back and read the comments. I misread but the design is confusing.
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