If you're looking for a distraction: Excellent academic article from @StatModeling @JessicaHullman @CBWlezien, @gelliottmorris & @JessicaHullman on communicating about forecasts—what they are, what they aren't. Again: the forecasts aren't wrong! Or right!https://twitter.com/JessicaHullman/status/1322981825040523271 …
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Sam Stein
Without making claims about any other state or the outcome. (I don't know!). Polling has clearly missed Florida, at least. Polling in a year like this included extra uncertainty. And it's also plausible that forecasts impacted/energized voters differently.https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1323786156551581697 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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This is how fragile those forecasts were. One state has a polling error, and the forecast now says Trump has one-in-three chance of winning. If errors are broadly correlated—not just Miami Cubans—the odds go up more. Big numbers don't imply big certainty. https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/ …pic.twitter.com/Hu1nCwRBEi
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Corbin Supak
Nothing. Before the election, organize, donate, vote. The forecasts are fragile for so many reasons; plus this year has pandemic and now we have, likely, court battles.https://twitter.com/CorbinSupak/status/1323811695760912385 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Nate Cohn
More model uncertainty! NYT needle (another model!) may be overcorrecting for Trump because he did better than expected in FL: model assumes same in NC + GA—but if FL is only because of Miami Cubans, that won't be the case. Wait for the counts. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323811540018077696 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Nate CohnVerified account @Nate_CohnThere are a few things I pause at right now, though. One is that all three states are in the same model. We control for state and voting method. Does the flood of results in Florida bias us a bit in NC/GA, especially in Latino areas? I think that's at least possible in GA burbsShow this thread4 replies 41 retweets 281 likesShow this thread -
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Replying to @zeynep
The 80% is the current chance of those three states falling to Trump, I believe, not of Trump winning the election
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Replying to @zeynep @poniewozik
No, as the description on the left says, if Trump takes all three, "either candidate could win" the national race.
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(Corrected garbled tweet).
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