I don’t know about this... Forecasts in general can definitely be wrong. Assigning a 99% chance to Clinton winning, for example, was a modeling error. If you don’t have the outcome in your prediction interval, from a modeling standpoint you very likely did something wrong.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1323649467015376896 …
My assertion is that especially for events where the forecast changes behavior, and where there is a lot of sources of uncertainty exogenous to the model, outcome by itself does not show which model is lower quality, and also that "bad" and "wrong" are not the same thing. 1/2
-
-
But agree on lack on progress here. I look forward to your post defining "wrong" for such forecasts, because it would be helpful.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.