I don’t know about this... Forecasts in general can definitely be wrong. Assigning a 99% chance to Clinton winning, for example, was a modeling error. If you don’t have the outcome in your prediction interval, from a modeling standpoint you very likely did something wrong.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1323649467015376896 …
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Yeah but just playing the odds, it's more likely that a model was just bad than a 1% event happened in one try
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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“Sucks” is just a silly way to hedge against saying “wrong” — or, perhaps better, grossly and dangerously misspecified
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All models will inherently make wrong assumptions. This is far too complicated to model perfectly. The question is the degree to how imperfect the model is.
End of conversation
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