I don’t know about this... Forecasts in general can definitely be wrong. Assigning a 99% chance to Clinton winning, for example, was a modeling error. If you don’t have the outcome in your prediction interval, from a modeling standpoint you very likely did something wrong.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1323649467015376896 …
-
-
I don't know whether I like the implication of this perspective insofar as the population at large is deemed as uneducated and therefore unable to understand a probabilistic forecast. If we can say with confidence that Biden will win, but instead lie and say that it's close...
-
... to incentivize high turnout because we deem a Biden win to be desirable that feels dubious to me. All other caveats are of course true insofar that communication is important, but if you state that this is a probabilistic prediction that doesn't assume behavioral changes ...
- Show replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.