I don’t know about this... Forecasts in general can definitely be wrong. Assigning a 99% chance to Clinton winning, for example, was a modeling error. If you don’t have the outcome in your prediction interval, from a modeling standpoint you very likely did something wrong.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1323649467015376896 …
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The communication has gotten better since 2016 but people still cannot, cognitively, process these things as what they are. Which in turn has a lot of effects on behavior. It's a real issue that requires even more effort.
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I agree with all that, especially trying to better understand the impacts on behavior
End of conversation
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