Remember when @fhollenbach and Christian Fong and I built them a forecasting model that predicted a Trump win and then they turned into this instead?https://www.vox.com/a/trump-tax
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Replying to @Jacob_Montg @fhollenbach
Looking back, do you think your model was “right”?
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Replying to @BradSpahn @fhollenbach
I have a lot of thoughts about this and probably 180 characters isn't the right format. But certainly I think something closer to 50/50 3 months before Election Day was/is more reasonable than models saying it was 95% certain.
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Replying to @Jacob_Montg @fhollenbach
Yea...even at the time I thought the Sam Wang model seemed much too certain.
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Thank you! Especially thorny in a low-turnout country like the US with a winner-takes-all sub-units in the Electoral College. The results could swing in either direction quite easily with small (correlated) shifts.
10:00 AM - 2 Nov 2020
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