I like this, of course, but with one caveat. I think there’s a lot of evidence that our beliefs about these probabilities affect the outcome. So our stress, or lack thereof, can change everything.
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Replying to @DKThomp @JSEllenberg
Heh. For example I am pretty certain there’s a number of people who are going to go to the polls specifically to vote for Republican senators to counterbalance what they see as a certain Biden presidency. How big? Dunno. Interesting question but it certainly exists.
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Replying to @DKThomp @JSEllenberg
I’m not fully disagreeing but... Even helpless stress matters. Haven’t you ever had a stressful experience and then swore to yourself that you would do whatever it took to never find yourself in that position again? “Stress” and “stress-driven behavior” aren’t neatly separable.
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So I DO agree with the take-home message but I think when dealing with humans it’s just never the case it doesn’t matter even if it is not immediately tied to a causal act. Pesky humans. 
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