In election forecasts it would be better to replace percentages with the required polling error for the underdog to win (currently ~5%). That’s more informative than 89% chance for Biden win. People can assess the chances on their own by thinking how likely that polling error is.
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Replying to @ranreichman
Totally agree. That's what I thought should have happened in 2016 presentations, too. Just show "if the electorate modeling is wrong by two percent, here's what it would look like." I read the footnotes in 2016 and understood the fragility. But very hard for people to grasp.
12:23 PM - 1 Nov 2020
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