The biggest issue with @zeynep's argument is that every point she makes against forecasting could be directed at polling itself.
And she sort of says at much at the end by saying that she hoped forecasting would transcend the horse race, but instead amplifies it. 2/5
-
Show this thread
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
Replying to @konklone
I don't even think all models were terrible in 2016 (538 was better if you read all the footnotes which highlighted the uncertainty though the topline presentation sucked). But on a minor note, I think early voting is part of our failure to organize voting rights properly.
2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes -
What other country has this kind of voting over a month or so? It doesn't make sense. We just aren't good at organizing elections, and that's not how it should be. I'm not against polling or models, just the place it occupies in our public attention, and lack of understanding.
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
I've been on team "make Election Day a national holiday" for a while, but there will always be a slice of voters who, for whatever reason, can't make it on a given day. Spreading out lines and load, and meeting busy voters where they are, seems like a good thing.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @konklone
Almost nobody else seems to need it, and many countries manage to have high turnout. It's weird, some people are voting weeks and weeks before the election day--before the debates, before all the news etc.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
One thing I learned working on election security was that US elections are (at least) an order of magnitude more complicated to administer than basically any other country. More levels of government, more kinds of races, just a full-body suffusion of voting in this country.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
I am sure there are counter-examples out there, and I don't mean to diminish any other country's system. We do clearly have a turnout problem in the US. We need to attack it from all angles: redistricting, RCV, early voting, automatic registration, etc. Not just organizing.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
We definitely need to fix it all. Maybe a few days of early voting make sense. But practically the whole rest of the planet manages substantial turnout without it. It's weird to have voting happen before a single debate... But it's what we need right now given everything else.
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.