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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Nov 2020

      Folks, stop refreshing the forecasts. The comfort you seek isn't there—and can't be. The excessive uncertainty this year–especially about turnout in a pandemic and which votes will count—makes these models structurally less useful than before. New piece: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/opinion/election-forecasts-modeling-flaws.html …pic.twitter.com/wzT3bN32uV

      52 replies 638 retweets 2,726 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      Check out this thread for a sophisticated discussion of what it means to "predict" essentially an unrepeatable event, one that is rare to boot—once every four years every one of which happens under greatly different conditions. Now amidst a pandemic. https://twitter.com/SimonDeDeo/status/1322770550352216064 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      6 replies 46 retweets 266 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Nov 2020

      Before anyone jumps on this, this is not a polemic against FiveThirtyEight's or anyone else's modeling choices. As I say in the piece, I was hopeful early on modeling would cut down on misleading horse-race coverage. I even wrote a piece on that! But that's not what's happened.

      4 replies 12 retweets 183 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Nov 2020

      For weather models we have detailed, fine-grained grasp of the underlying dynamics, a mountain of data, and chances to test our predictions every day. Presidential elections? Numbers fly around every four years, then lots of debate and no conclusion. Because it *cannot* conclude.pic.twitter.com/jcgtT60WTS

      5 replies 26 retweets 205 likes
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    5. Andy Schwarz, sponsored by Envelopes of Cash‏ @andyhre 1 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      understood. I think there is some public value in 90/10 vs 50/50. People just need to understand that 10% chance happen. Say there's no time on the clock. You have 1 foul shot to tie up the game. You should feel more confident with a 90% shooter, but he still will miss 10%.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Nov 2020
      Replying to @andyhre

      What is the public value? Honestly, I used to think that too (because of horse-race coverage that would drown out everything else) but now we just have a lot of noise around the model predictions. Honestly don't know what the public value is.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Andy Schwarz, sponsored by Envelopes of Cash‏ @andyhre 1 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      Assume the model is right. That means we're far more likely to have a Biden win. There are people in a bubble in Fox land who will feel that was impossible. Giving their grandchildren something to point to ex post that people were forecasting it ex ante is good.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Nov 2020
      Replying to @andyhre

      On what basis are we assuming the model is right? Biden winning doesn't show that. Neither does Trump winning show that. "Assume" is doing a lot of work it shouldn't be doing. We're not gamblers in a sports game either--where we have no influence over the outcome.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Andy Schwarz, sponsored by Envelopes of Cash‏ @andyhre 1 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      Well, I will concede to you that if the model is wrong, it has no public value. Falsity is bad. So you win that scenario. Now let's focus on the other state of nature.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Andy Schwarz, sponsored by Envelopes of Cash‏ @andyhre 1 Nov 2020
      Replying to @andyhre @zeynep

      For most , we are the political equivalent of price-takers. We don't individually influence the outcome. Certainly not me in California, nor the Alabama voter who is Grandpa in my scenario above

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Nov 2020
      Replying to @andyhre

      Well, read my piece. That's clearly not what happened in 2016, and forecasts absolutely influence outcome.

      10:05 AM - 1 Nov 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Andy Schwarz, sponsored by Envelopes of Cash‏ @andyhre 1 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          ok, I will do so! I just think the "they have zero value in all states of nature" b/c they have zero value in SOME states of nature is too extreme.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Andy Schwarz, sponsored by Envelopes of Cash‏ @andyhre 1 Nov 2020
          Replying to @andyhre @zeynep

          (oh, hey, dumb question. Your family is from Turkey, yes? My wife's mother was an Aksöz from Adana)

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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