I'm sympathetic to this point (we all know much less than we think we do.) But it seems like an epistemic problem to me. Knowledge/prediction of airplanes is of a different kind (not just degree) than knowledge/prediction of complex social phenomena.
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The idea there's some independent "correctness" that's defined by expertise rather than the trade-offs we've imposed on the field is so profoundly off the mark for commercial aviation that I really am genuinely interested in how this isn't obvious. Especially after Boeing Max.
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Technocrats tend to think with their tool at the center of the universe rather than humanity as the center of (our) universe. With the danger of ecocide we have to think with our ecosystemic web as the center of (our) universe.
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At one point in this thread, Chris' "airplane mechanics" became Zeynep's "pilots", and there's a big difference. I think this might be why you two seem to be talking past one another. In terms of "hard" foundations, pilots sit in the grey zone between mechanics and policy wonks.
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