There's a truth to it: non-virogists aren't going to be able to evaluate virology claims. I'm just unable to get over an tsk-tsk epistemic trespassing article citing a medical expert who has been very confident making baseless claims, and is slow to resistant to actual evidence.
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Replying to @zeynep
Certainly in many cases it will be hard to pass my test of making an argument "that makes sense" without some actual domain expertise! But few of the public virologists are sticking to virology claims in their public discussion (which is good, everyone should be thinking).
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Replying to @WesPegden
Multiple things. There are topics that are not domain of domain expertise, but of values and trade-offs, and the "expert" discussion hasn't recognized this. But more fundamentally, some of the expert class still seems to think the core problem is public doesn't trust the experts.
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Replying to @zeynep
We seem predisposed to thinking that a pandemic means we have morally failed. When cases aren't under control, the public has done something to deserve it (like not listening to experts). There's been lots of suboptimal policy. But also a myth of an expert-consensus "solution".
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Replying to @WesPegden @zeynep
Agree. Europe seemed to have it under control this summer. "They are so smart, they believe in science!!!". Then epidemic spikes in fall. "What have they done??? Did they give up???!" Reality: Covid is extremely hard to contain.
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Replying to @joost_schreve @WesPegden
Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea would like to have a word. Reality: Europe imposed restrictions that didn't fully make sense and then lifted restrictions in a way that didn't make sense. Exactly what I'm talking about. Yes it's hard. But also Western expert class failed.
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Replying to @zeynep @joost_schreve
I think it is far from obvious that policy choices were the main difference between outcomes in these places (though certainly, we should still be trying to learn from them).
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Replying to @WesPegden @joost_schreve
It may not be, but it is certainly part of what happened. But even having that discussion requires admitting the problems with our policies. UK was subsidizing indoor dining in summer; Spain opened giant nightclubs, Netherlands refuses masks, Canada opens indoor gyms...
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Replying to @zeynep @joost_schreve
These things look like mistakes after cases rise. For example SK has also had night clubs and bars open (they've asked for voluntary closures for Halloween weekend, I think). And the numbers show they aren't catching a large fraction of their cases through tracing.
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Replying to @WesPegden @joost_schreve
Yes but. They are focusing on clusters much more effectively, and had gotten background transmission much lower before opening up, unlike Europe. (And they are not using "exposure notification" but aggressive and often venue-based tracing).
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Not saying there may not be other factors going on, but Europe has not had a coherent strategy that made sense, and the "look they are great" in the US is partly because Americans have a Europhile streak that is not always accompanied by understanding. (I lived in Europe).
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