There's a truth to it: non-virogists aren't going to be able to evaluate virology claims. I'm just unable to get over an tsk-tsk epistemic trespassing article citing a medical expert who has been very confident making baseless claims, and is slow to resistant to actual evidence.
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Replying to @zeynep
Certainly in many cases it will be hard to pass my test of making an argument "that makes sense" without some actual domain expertise! But few of the public virologists are sticking to virology claims in their public discussion (which is good, everyone should be thinking).
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Replying to @WesPegden
Multiple things. There are topics that are not domain of domain expertise, but of values and trade-offs, and the "expert" discussion hasn't recognized this. But more fundamentally, some of the expert class still seems to think the core problem is public doesn't trust the experts.
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Replying to @zeynep
We seem predisposed to thinking that a pandemic means we have morally failed. When cases aren't under control, the public has done something to deserve it (like not listening to experts). There's been lots of suboptimal policy. But also a myth of an expert-consensus "solution".
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Replying to @WesPegden @zeynep
Agree. Europe seemed to have it under control this summer. "They are so smart, they believe in science!!!". Then epidemic spikes in fall. "What have they done??? Did they give up???!" Reality: Covid is extremely hard to contain.
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Replying to @joost_schreve @WesPegden
Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea would like to have a word. Reality: Europe imposed restrictions that didn't fully make sense and then lifted restrictions in a way that didn't make sense. Exactly what I'm talking about. Yes it's hard. But also Western expert class failed.
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Replying to @zeynep @joost_schreve
I think it is far from obvious that policy choices were the main difference between outcomes in these places (though certainly, we should still be trying to learn from them).
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Replying to @WesPegden @joost_schreve
It may not be, but it is certainly part of what happened. But even having that discussion requires admitting the problems with our policies. UK was subsidizing indoor dining in summer; Spain opened giant nightclubs, Netherlands refuses masks, Canada opens indoor gyms...
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(All that against significant background community transmission, way beyond what test-and-trace can cope with...)
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There was still a widespread popular perception that Europe was handling this well, until it...wasn't. I think it's important to examine why it isn't now and adjust our priors about how to handle things. Hopefully places like Japan will continue to do well and be a useful model.
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I don't disagree this is hard but looking at Europe rather than Asian countries that have both a much better track record and also deep expertise is... just our prejudice. Always was. European guidelines never fully made sense to me, to be honest, at any stage. Again, it is hard.
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I don't disagree, but the message this summer was "we suck at this uniquely." I tend to think we have enough in common with Europe that understanding their current failures is important. That's all I am saying, not that I agree they should be a model rather than Asia.
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Note that if we want to avoid prejudice and really understand what works, we should be looking at places like Vietnam and Senegal as much as Taiwan and Japan.
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