I actually disagree! 2020 has so many weirdo hiccups that I don't know what to make of the models. Yes, of course, we will win the last war. We always do. So did 2016.
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Of course! But we could have misfires that resemble 2016. In either direction. Does anyone have a solid clue who is going to actually turn up on election day? Our polls have assumptions about that. Plus 2016 had a correlated cascade. Possible now too. In either direction. Tough.
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