I actually disagree! 2020 has so many weirdo hiccups that I don't know what to make of the models. Yes, of course, we will win the last war. We always do. So did 2016.
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The education misfire is also turnout misfire. (Every poll is modeling likely turnout). I’m not saying the polls are wrong, I’m saying the uncertainty mechanisms are so much bigger than 2016.
End of conversation
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