TIL that if I say presidential election models are less useful than widely-assumed, many assume I don’t understand probability models and start explaining weather forecasts to me! No, that’s the point. They’re different in usefulness despite superficial/methodological similarity.
Acknowledging when there’s so much (coupled) uncertainty that both outcomes of interest are within one-two sigma plus muddled by reflexivity is also part of producing knowledge.
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Agreed. So you are only acknowledging the need to understand models in the full complexity, not suggesting we ignore them. What is your basis for the statement of both outcomes being between 1-2 sigma in this election? I would argue the results are >3 sigma from even.
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