TIL that if I say presidential election models are less useful than widely-assumed, many assume I don’t understand probability models and start explaining weather forecasts to me! No, that’s the point. They’re different in usefulness despite superficial/methodological similarity.
National polls are even less useful for US presidential elections.
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How much do you trust FiveThirtyEight, who, I assume, looks at each state before making their all-encompassing prediction?
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