TIL that if I say presidential election models are less useful than widely-assumed, many assume I don’t understand probability models and start explaining weather forecasts to me! No, that’s the point. They’re different in usefulness despite superficial/methodological similarity.
Comey letter is partially an outcome of confidence in the outcome!
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Interesting take! Seriously though, as a scientist I have a hard time suggesting we not produce information because it might be problematic. Have you given any thought to that question? Could there be any way to mitigate problems? Obviously better education would help.
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Acknowledging when there’s so much (coupled) uncertainty that both outcomes of interest are within one-two sigma plus muddled by reflexivity is also part of producing knowledge.
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