TIL that if I say presidential election models are less useful than widely-assumed, many assume I don’t understand probability models and start explaining weather forecasts to me! No, that’s the point. They’re different in usefulness despite superficial/methodological similarity.
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In my ideal world, the US (a) makes the electoral college vote proportional to pop and (b) institutes ranked choice in a manner that synthesizes with the electoral college. But I'll settle for getting rid of it and going for a FPTP popular vote.
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Ranked choice would seem to have a moderating effect (though I haven’t seen the studies). Think the electoral college balances urban/non urban vote (if it’s just by percentage of pop, why spend any time but in cities) that is currently a schism and may not moderate further.
End of conversation
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