TIL that if I say presidential election models are less useful than widely-assumed, many assume I don’t understand probability models and start explaining weather forecasts to me! No, that’s the point. They’re different in usefulness despite superficial/methodological similarity.
Yeah. I thought/hoped that would be the outcome! I like models more than polls for obvious reasons. Didn’t work out that way. :-)
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Meaning Trump won? Unfortunately, that was due to very much outside the norm events that heavily influenced the outcome like the Comey letter and Russian interference. Hopefully, those won’t repeat ever, not just this year. In fact, one of our biggest jobs is making sure of that.
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Comey letter is partially an outcome of confidence in the outcome!
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