TIL that if I say presidential election models are less useful than widely-assumed, many assume I don’t understand probability models and start explaining weather forecasts to me! No, that’s the point. They’re different in usefulness despite superficial/methodological similarity.
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Are you saying that the models are affecting the outcome? I don’t quite follow the umbrella analogy though I acknowledge that a presidential election forecast doesn’t give you information like, “take an umbrella.”
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Yes, they do. Part of the complexity.
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