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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Oct 2020

    TIL that if I say presidential election models are less useful than widely-assumed, many assume I don’t understand probability models and start explaining weather forecasts to me! No, that’s the point. They’re different in usefulness despite superficial/methodological similarity.

    2:12 PM - 18 Oct 2020
    • 23 Retweets
    • 253 Likes
    • Vivian Ericson WanderingNomad Rafael Alvarado Steve H jstrauss Dr Colleen Davy anais33 pbtilt Yo Geissler
    12 replies 23 retweets 253 likes
      1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Oct 2020

        *adds to long-form writing list*

        3 replies 0 retweets 68 likes
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      1. Dak (David A. Keldsen)‏ @d_a_keldsen 18 Oct 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        And we don’t get “20% erosion of democracy”

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Alexander Rudolph #JusticeforBreonna‏ @cosmicreindeer 18 Oct 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        Can you elaborate? Of course a probabilistic prediction of a one-off event is less useful than a daily weather forecast but you implied they were not useful at all and misleading.

        3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Oct 2020
        Replying to @cosmicreindeer

        It’s the tightly-coupled errors—not just polling errors—due to rare event in changing terrain plus the reflexivity. Me taking an umbrella along doesn’t interact with rain chances. And *admittedly hand-waving* both outcomes are probably within one-two sigma true error. Now what?

        1 reply 2 retweets 31 likes
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      2. David Ridley‏ @RidleyDM 18 Oct 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        You didn't say they were "less useful than widely-assumed." You said they were "pointless or misleading" because an event forecast as an 8% probability occurred. If I (and others) misunderstood you, I apologize, but if so I still don't understand your point.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Oct 2020
        Replying to @RidleyDM

        Misleading because true error isn’t reflected. Probably not possible. Too few events to model from. Pointless because of reflexivity. Will see if I can write longer.

        1 reply 1 retweet 15 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Dru Stevenson‏ @DruStevenson 18 Oct 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        They're fun to read, though.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Richard Tomsett‏ @richardtomsett 18 Oct 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        Also... useful to whom?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. Zoomer Antimillenarian‏ @surcomplicated 18 Oct 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        How much does this extend, in your view, to Congressional races? On the one hand, a lot of the same problems and worse polling. On the other, a LOT more past data to use.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Oct 2020
        Replying to @surcomplicated

        Districts are easier imo. US electoral college (a lot of coupled first-past the post events) is wicked.

        2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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