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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    2. Resolve.Action.Love‏ @Snowman55403 18 Oct 2020
      Replying to @lindsaycrouse @zeynep

      So here's the think about that: The 8% came true. It's why some people bet on the green 00 on Roulette. Small likelihood, big payoff. It doesn't mean the HRC percentage was, per se, wrong.

      8 replies 1 retweet 45 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Oct 2020
      Replying to @Snowman55403 @lindsaycrouse

      In which case all of these projections are pointless or misleading. Pick one.

      10:51 AM - 18 Oct 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 61 Likes
      • Allan Hoving 🍊Rev. Dr. President Charles Littles III Esq. 🇺🇸 Magic Herb There is no spoon Aaron #IoStoConLaJuventus siool Liz Skaates Random Gen Fan
      24 replies 1 retweet 61 likes
        1. David Ridley‏ @RidleyDM 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Snowman55403 @lindsaycrouse

          That's like saying we shouldn't have weather forecasts because it doesn't rain every time the forecast is for a 90% chance of rain.

          4 replies 0 retweets 28 likes
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        2. Jason Hahn‏ @JasonLHahn 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Snowman55403 @lindsaycrouse

          I don’t get this... if it’s not an all or nothing it is therefore useless? Isn’t this type of information better than guesses by journalists and pundits?

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Jose Laquidain is masked and fully vaccinated‏ @JoseLaquidain 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @JasonLHahn @zeynep and

          It is useless for impatient people who want a “Yes/No”, “On/Off simple dichotomy. And those mentalities are dangerous for probabilities. Definitely these estimations are better than gurus’ oracles. But still, hope for the best, be prepared for the worst.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Cytokinestormchaser‏ @winogradsky1 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Snowman55403 @lindsaycrouse

          Asking a general Twitter population to understand probability is a futile endeavor

          0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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        1. Kyle Hutton‏ @kylejhutton 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Snowman55403 @lindsaycrouse

          You're supposed to be a lot smarter than this I thought.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Alexander Rudolph #JusticeforBreonna‏ @cosmicreindeer 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Snowman55403 @lindsaycrouse

          I love your Atlantic articles but I am disappointed in this response. Probabilities are a way of quantifying uncertainty which is better than ping ponging around with every new poll.

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
        3. Jose Laquidain is masked and fully vaccinated‏ @JoseLaquidain 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @cosmicreindeer @zeynep and

          “Ping ponging” 🤣🤣🤣🤣👍

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. 🅹 ( 🚰 🚩 🏴× 💉 💉 💉), sojourner‏ @0xKruzr 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Snowman55403 @lindsaycrouse

          what? no. that is not how statistics works.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Treebeard‏ @b11c 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Snowman55403 @lindsaycrouse

          They are, because it's not a dice roll. Voters can and will be influenced.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Uncle Sam‏ @UncleSamIam1776 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Snowman55403 @lindsaycrouse

          Literally none of them are going to be exact the question is how wrong are they? On average about 6% across all reputable polls. The results of 2016 were within that range.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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