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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Adam Kucharski‏Verified account @AdamJKucharski 13 Oct 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden

      Yes, epidemics may well decline in some locations because of infection-acquired immunity, but a lot of countries are currently making the assumption that they will be able to find a better option (treatment, vaccine etc.)

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 13 Oct 2020
      Replying to @AdamJKucharski

      The realistic outcome is at neither extreme; we will hopefully have better treatments and vaccines that help, but immunity will also probably affect trajectories in the meantime, which means it is likely dangerous to ignore the effects policies have on age-distributions, etc.

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
    3. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 13 Oct 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @AdamJKucharski

      Wes Pegden Retweeted Wes Pegden

      Basically I think we are making an unjustified implicit assumption that immunity will not affect trajectories until a game-changing development. Immunity undercuts a monotone relationship between mitigations/outcomes, and calls for strategic thinking.https://twitter.com/WesPegden/status/1293279894743457793 …

      Wes Pegden added,

      Wes Pegden @WesPegden
      Replying to @WesPegden @DiseaseEcology @antonioregalado
      The greedy algorithm works for finding a minimum spanning tree, not for everything in life. "Life is not a matroid."
      1 reply 2 retweets 8 likes
    4. Adam Kucharski‏Verified account @AdamJKucharski 13 Oct 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden

      Think it’s matter of aim vs outcome. There’s difference between working to protect risk groups from local transmission (e.g. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19 …) vs assuming epidemic can be tailored to build high level of infection in some without having high level of disease in others...

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
    5. Adam Kucharski‏Verified account @AdamJKucharski 13 Oct 2020
      Replying to @AdamJKucharski @WesPegden

      Basically, countries have to decide if they want high prevalence & high disease burden (+ restrictions to stop runaway hospitalisations) while post-infection immunity builds (and hopefully persists). Or keep R<=1 with low prevalence while awaiting better options for immunity.

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
    6. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 13 Oct 2020
      Replying to @AdamJKucharski

      I disagree with the dichotomy in the 1st of these two tweets. Also I don't think what matters is whether countries "want" high prevalence and disease burden or "want" low prevalence and better options. Planning should account for likely outcomes, not just what we ideally want.

      1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
    7. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 13 Oct 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @AdamJKucharski

      In particular, if we "want" low prevalence, but nevertheless *think* that significant future case increases are probable, then it is a mistake not to account for immunity phenomena when making plans.

      1 reply 2 retweets 13 likes
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Oct 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @AdamJKucharski

      What would be the practical effect of accounting for immunity? What would we do different?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 13 Oct 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @AdamJKucharski

      One example of a simple principle is that any time relaxations are planned, we should aim to have them happen earlier for younger people. E.g., we could have had leniency for collecting UI after being called back to work, based on age. More generally, it is particularly...

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    10. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 13 Oct 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @zeynep @AdamJKucharski

      important to focus on sustainable measures for young adult populations. Decision-makers currently believe that even temporary transmission reductions can only help. But particularly for young adult populations, this can be false It's fine to say it's best to just depress...

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Oct 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @AdamJKucharski

      Age-gradations can make sense for many contexts, but they don’t pertain to existing levels of prior immunity? I thought you were arguing places with prior outbreaks should have different policies.

      2:16 PM - 13 Oct 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Wes Pegden
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 13 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @AdamJKucharski

          I was actually not talking about different policies for different locations based on prior outbreaks, but I can see why it looks like that given how it started.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 13 Oct 2020
          Replying to @WesPegden @zeynep @AdamJKucharski

          I'm really just saying that if we think immunity matters, the implications of this should be discussed as part of policy strategy.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. End of conversation

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