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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Steve Yadlowsky‏ @graduatedescent 12 Oct 2020
      Replying to @NoahHaber @alex_peys and

      So what’s your argument here? That places where people where masks systematically do less testing? What’s the purported confounding mechanism?

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Noah Haber‏ @NoahHaber 12 Oct 2020
      Replying to @graduatedescent @alex_peys and

      This is confounded by almost everything that impacts COVID; behaviors, policies, epidemic status, demographics, cultural factors, aggregation fallacies, etc. It takes only one, and this has dozens. It's a textbook example for why you don't do this kind of analysis.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    3. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 12 Oct 2020
      Replying to @NoahHaber @graduatedescent and

      I’m in between. Of course it is confounded. But it is not irrelevant. If the pair wise association were not there it would be harder to make the case for masks’ importance. Not impossible but harder.

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
    4. Noah Haber‏ @NoahHaber 12 Oct 2020
      Replying to @mlipsitch @graduatedescent and

      A precisely estimated null would have been evidence for the LACK of effectiveness, but the correlation and lack of a precisely estimated null in an incredibly confounded situation is not meaningful evidence for anything. I am a little surprised by the defense of this, honestly.

      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. This Tweet is unavailable.
    6. Noah Haber‏ @NoahHaber 12 Oct 2020
      Replying to @alex_peys @mlipsitch and

      I used to work in pharma on models for regulatory approvals. I am well aware. We aren't talking about that; nor are we talking about smoking. We are talking about this paper.

      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. This Tweet is unavailable.
    8. Noah Haber‏ @NoahHaber 12 Oct 2020
      Replying to @alex_peys @mlipsitch and

      Fine. We are talking about this blog post. Does that make any meaningful difference? If anything that makes it LESS worth talking about and spreading. And in the interest of that, I need to get back to a paper, unironically related to things like this.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 12 Oct 2020
      Replying to @NoahHaber @alex_peys and

      OK I agree I retweeted too soon. I still think there is information there, but "striking evidence" is way too strong. I read the DELPHI CMU tweet inside and got overenthusiastic.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Oct 2020
      Replying to @mlipsitch @NoahHaber and

      Almost all non-pharmaceutical interventions are necessarily confounded, but correlations are an important indicator of potential causation. I get the asterisk but “correlation is not causation” gets wielded as if it were a refutation of causation. It is clearly not.

      3 replies 2 retweets 18 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Oct 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @mlipsitch and

      Do people who comply with one non-pharmaceutical intervention comply with others? Probably. (That’s also why that whole risk compensation thing was mostly nonsense.) Do they all add up? Almost certainly. Relative contribution is hard to measure (non-linear) but we can estimate.

      12:09 PM - 12 Oct 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 12 Likes
      • Tom Sweeney Nicklas Roman Carly alex peysakhovich 🤖 M Marks CMU Delphi David Foulser Proud European from Austria🇪🇺🇦🇹 🌏
      1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Noah Haber‏ @NoahHaber 12 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @mlipsitch and

          My whole thing is examining how well we can actually estimate these things in any meaningful sense. In COVID in particular, everything gets much, much harder to the point of near-hopelessness for many questions. I think we all need to get much more comfortable with that.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. CMU Delphi‏ @CmuDelphi 12 Oct 2020
          Replying to @NoahHaber @zeynep and

          Identifying and estimating causal effects is extremely important, no doubt. But short of estimating identified causal effects, we can get practical guidance and update our default hypotheses based on our background structural knowledge and observed associations.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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