This article by @zeynep is one of the most useful and insightful of the whole pandemic. The key variable is dispersion, and the best way to measure it is backwards tracing. We and others could have helped if there was any will. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …
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“In an overdispersed regime, identifying transmission events (someone infected someone else) is more important than identifying infected individuals.”
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“Overdispersion makes it harder for us to absorb lessons from the world, bc it interferes with how we ordinarily think about cause and effect. For example, it means that events that result in spreading and non-spreading of the virus are asymmetric in their ability to inform us”
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