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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Ross Douthat‏Verified account @DouthatNYT 9 Oct 2020

      On the one hand this is unfair to Trump: I was extremely concerned about the virus and I wasn't calling for those steps. On the other hand the case for Trump was always that he was tougher/bolder/more aggressively America-First than nervous cocktail-party conservatives like me.

      10 replies 6 retweets 106 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Ross Douthat‏Verified account @DouthatNYT 9 Oct 2020

      But anyway this is also more evidence that wherever you want to locate Trump's crucial failure re: the pandemic, in most counterfactuals with more normal presidents the initial spread still gets out of hand.

      30 replies 10 retweets 98 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @DouthatNYT

      This is obviously not true because there are many countries that had many introductions from travel, just like this, and even large outbreaks, and got it under control without anything like China’s shutdowns. There are other proven strategies that work well.

      4 replies 9 retweets 86 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @DouthatNYT

      Take a look at my article. Almost every country got multiple introductions, just like the United States, and some even had bigger outbreaks than we did early on and did not have draconian shutdowns, just appropriate response to the threat, and it worked.https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …

      2 replies 12 retweets 61 likes
    5. Ross Douthat‏Verified account @DouthatNYT 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      I guess I think the regional concentration of success stories in small, pandemic-hardened Pacific Rim countries is telling; I read your "once a country has too many outbreaks" paragraph as describing the US in most plausible late-February conditions.

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Ross Douthat‏Verified account @DouthatNYT 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @DouthatNYT @zeynep

      The example of Europe shows that it's possible to suppress w/harder lockdowns after a major trauma, and it's reasonable to see US failure in that regard in May/June. But no big non-Pacific country, not even Germany, achieved SK/Taiwan/Japan suppression early once it was seeded.

      1 reply 2 retweets 5 likes
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @DouthatNYT

      The idea that it was not seeded in South Korea & Japan is simply not true. You're just assuming the answer: we failed because it was seeded, and they didn't because it wasn't. Also Europe overdid lockdowns and then relaxed the wrong way. My article is long but it addresses that.

      2 replies 3 retweets 22 likes
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @DouthatNYT

      New Zealand had 277+ separate introductions that we know of. South Korea had one of the world's worst outbreaks very early. Yes, a few countries got lucky early on, but even the ones that got unlucky had varied response, and there were right answers.

      1 reply 4 retweets 19 likes
    9. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @DouthatNYT

      No one is arguing that there weren't. We are asking whether Donald Trump failed in some way peculiar to him, or in some way that was pretty common among large countries with a lot of introductions. The answer Ross and I come to is "Not obviously worse in Spring, bad in summer."

      2 replies 1 retweet 1 like
    10. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @asymmetricinfo @zeynep @DouthatNYT

      Though I think that actually, once you control for density and slightly later super-spreading, Donald Trump underperformed even on those metrics--but also that this is a complex case unlikely to convince many people who didn't already hate Trump.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @asymmetricinfo @DouthatNYT

      We failed spectacularly in ways absolutely unique to us and the bigger circle of failure includes almost all of Western Europe, and the key tool was whether one had the pathogen right, early, by looking at the data rather than sticking to the wrong playbook plus some competence.

      8:14 AM - 9 Oct 2020
      • 3 Retweets
      • 12 Likes
      • veronica 🌈 Sasha Margolis Laura Carroll strings and sealing wax Margaret Thornton, Ph.D. (she/her/hers) josh Francis Tom Sweeney Your Local Log Lady
      1 reply 3 retweets 12 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @asymmetricinfo @DouthatNYT

          I'm rejecting the idea that once the epidemic somehow "seeded" there wasn't much to do, Ross's first tweet. Just not true. Absolutely reject the culture argument; many different cultures worked. Competence? Sure, everything fails without some competence.

          2 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @asymmetricinfo @DouthatNYT

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Ross Douthat

          This is just not true, because we have lots of examples. That's what I'm pointing out.https://twitter.com/DouthatNYT/status/1314563296389816325 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Ross DouthatVerified account @DouthatNYT
          Basically, to control the virus early would have required a full shutdown of China travel earlier than the partial shutdown, and a shutdown of European travel when we did the partial China one: https://www.wsj.com/graphics/when-did-covid-hit-earliest-death/?mod=hp_lead_pos5 …
          Show this thread
          0 replies 2 retweets 11 likes
        4. End of conversation

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